Domestic power demand rising; coal-based generation insulated from crude oil shock unlike OMCs; cup-and-handle chart breakout at 5-month inventory high signals technical strength.

Prices

Entry: ₹159.75

Current: ₹204.19

P&L: +27.82%

Hold Plan

Target hold: 21 days

Held so far: 15 days

Review / exit: 26 Apr 2026

Review complete

Assumptions

A1: Adani Power sustains above 5-month closing high without breakdown

A2: Coal India supply linkage remains intact keeping fuel costs stable

A3: Power demand continues rising with no major grid disruption

A4: No adverse regulatory or tariff orders impacting Adani Power revenues

Lifecycle Timeline

Bought 5 Apr 2026

Accepted from analysis task analysis-2026-04-05-0601

Confirmed and held 6 Apr 2026

Near entry at ₹160; MSEDCL contract adds long-term visibility; coal-based insulated from crude

Flagged for a closer look 17 Apr 2026

Up 21.5% from entry (₹194.15 vs ₹159.75) and trading near the 52-week high of ₹193.37. JM Financial estimates Q4 PAT may decline 12.3% YoY even as the stock prices in summer demand tailwinds (mid-May to September). Move to WATCH to lock in gains mentally, tighten stop, and reassess post-Q4 prints.

Sold 20 Apr 2026

RSI 86.2 strongly overbought with 6-session record high streak; +24% from Rs 159.75 entry has blown through any reasonable sector_tailwind target. Stochastic 92. Thesis has played out — book the gain rather than hold through inevitable mean-reversion. Prior WATCH was too lenient.

Reviewed and closed 30 Apr 2026

Post-mortem postmortem-REC-20260405-02-ADANIPOWER-2026-04-29 completed on 2026-04-30T03:47:05Z.

Post-Mortem

correct

Exit premature

Review Return

Review price: ₹219.28

Full hold: +37.26%

Actual: +27.82%

Benchmarks

NIFTY 50: +6.45%

Excess: +21.37%

Sector excess: +19.32%

What If

Held full: +37.26%

Exited at WATCH: +21.53%

Thesis Analysis

Power demand, coal insulation, and momentum all worked. Adani Power later reported strong Q4 results and hit fresh highs, confirming the sector-tailwind thesis.

Exit Analysis

Exit locked a strong gain, but the stock continued to Rs 219.28 by review. Better rule: scale out when overbought, not full exit if thesis is still strengthening.

Verified Assumptions

A1 Verified

Price sustained the breakout and later reached a fresh high near Rs 226.25 on April 29.

A2 Verified

No adverse Coal India supply-linkage disruption was found during the hold window.

A3 Verified

Power demand and power-sector momentum remained supportive into late April.

A4 Verified

No adverse regulatory or tariff order was found; Q4 results instead showed strong profit growth.

Lessons

high sector_tailwind_exit_scaling

For sector-tailwind winners above target with fresh earnings pending, prefer partial profit-taking plus trailing stop over full exit.

moderate technical_gate_context

Overbought RSI alone should not override improving fundamental evidence when the thesis is still being confirmed.

Corporate Events

No corporate events attached.

HCL Technologies

HCLTECH • REVIEW_COMPLETE • sector tailwind

Hold 21 days • Review / exit 26 Apr 2026

-7.42% Post-mortem done

Thesis

IT sector recovering on rupee stabilisation and bargain buying after 10%+ market correction; DII accumulation and RBI support improving near-term outlook for large-cap IT exporters.

Prices

Entry: ₹1,395.00

Current: ₹1,291.50

P&L: -7.42%

Hold Plan

Target hold: 21 days

Held so far: 17 days

Review / exit: 26 Apr 2026

Review complete

Assumptions

A1: Rupee remains stable or weakens further vs USD aiding IT revenue in INR terms

A2: Nifty IT index sustains above 200-DMA on follow-through buying

A3: DII net buying continues in equity markets supporting large-cap IT

A4: No new escalation in Iran conflict that triggers fresh broad selloff

Lifecycle Timeline

Bought 5 Apr 2026

Accepted from analysis task analysis-2026-04-05-0601

Confirmed and held 6 Apr 2026

Above entry at ₹1,402; IT defensive rally intact; Q4 results April 21

Flagged for a closer look 14 Apr 2026

At about Rs 1428.5 versus the Rs 1395 entry, the trade is still positive, but the IT-recovery thesis has weakened after TCS’s mixed read-through. Move it to WATCH until Nifty IT can reclaim leadership and prove it can hold above the 31,000 resistance zone.

Back to normal 17 Apr 2026

Q4 FY26 on April 21 with interim dividend under consideration. Stock up ~4% from entry with IT sector recovery intact post-TCS, and FY27 guidance of 4-6% would be a positive catalyst. Maintain HOLD through the event; re-evaluate post-results based on FY27 commentary.

Flagged for a closer look 21 Apr 2026

Q4 print today: PAT ₹4,488 cr (+4.2%) — slightly below ₹4,716 cr consensus. Current ₹1,424 vs entry ₹1,395 = +2.1%, in hit zone. FY27 guidance is the swing factor; if guide is cautious, stock gives back gains. Move to WATCH and reassess on April 22 open once guide is digested. Review date April 26.

Sold 22 Apr 2026

HCLTech is about 7.4% below the Rs 1,395 entry using the embedded latest price and was down over 9-10% intraday after Q4 results. The FY27 guide weakened the sector-tailwind thesis, and the current price is below the prior 200-DMA zone, so the configured drawdown and technical gates both argue for exit.

Reviewed and closed 30 Apr 2026

Post-mortem postmortem-REC-20260405-01-HCLTECH-2026-04-29 completed on 2026-04-30T03:47:05Z.

Post-Mortem

wrong

Exit correct

Review Return

Review price: ₹1,199.70

Full hold: -14.00%

Actual: -7.42%

Benchmarks

NIFTY 50: +6.45%

Excess: -13.87%

Sector excess: -7.27%

What If

Held full: -14.00%

Exited at WATCH: +2.40%

Thesis Analysis

The IT recovery thesis failed after HCLTech's Q4 miss and weak FY27 guidance. The stock fell far more than Nifty and lagged the sector.

Exit Analysis

The exit stopped further damage. By April 29 the stock was near Rs 1,199.70, materially below the Rs 1,291.50 exit price.

Verified Assumptions

A1 Failed

Rupee and macro stability did not overcome company-specific weakness in guidance and demand.

A2 Failed

Nifty IT suffered a sharp post-HCLTech selloff and leadership did not sustain.

A3 Verified

DII buying continued broadly, but it was not enough to protect HCLTech from earnings disappointment.

A4 Failed

Middle East and crude-related macro risks stayed elevated through the review window.

Lessons

high earnings_event_risk

Do not carry a sector-tailwind IT trade through company results when sector leadership is already weak.

high thesis_specific_risk

Large-cap defensive status is not enough if guidance risk is the central catalyst.

Corporate Events

No corporate events attached.

Shriram Finance

SHRIRAMFIN • REVIEW_COMPLETE • earnings play

Hold 4 days • Review / exit 26 Apr 2026

-7.43% Post-mortem done

Thesis

Shriram Finance is the Reddit-originated candidate from NBFC discovery, where retail discussion repeatedly surfaced Shriram Finance, Bajaj Finance and Chola as higher-quality finance-sector names. The non-community setup is acceptable: Q3 FY26 core metrics showed NII up 16.17% YoY and AUM up 14.63%, while the next board meeting on April 24 will consider audited FY26 results and final dividend. Technically, Dhan shows RSI in the preferred range, bullish MACD, price above the 200-DMA and only one moving-average sell signal, making it cleaner than other Reddit NBFC ideas tested.

Prices

Entry: ₹1,052.15

Current: ₹974.00

P&L: -7.43%

Hold Plan

Target hold: 4 days

Held so far: 6 days

Review / exit: 26 Apr 2026

Review complete

Assumptions

A1: The Apr 24 audited-results and dividend meeting occurs as scheduled and does not reveal asset-quality deterioration.

A2: The stock remains above the 20-DMA after the earnings event and stochastic does not extend materially above the overbought threshold.

Lifecycle Timeline

Bought 22 Apr 2026

Accepted from analysis task analysis-2026-04-22-1348

Flagged for a closer look 23 Apr 2026

The April 24 results and final-dividend catalyst is confirmed, but price is now down about 4.1% from entry. Move to WATCH rather than EXIT because the earnings event is imminent.

Sold 28 Apr 2026

The earnings-play thesis failed after the post-result drawdown exceeded the acceptable threshold. Capital should be redeployed rather than waiting for a delayed recovery.

Reviewed and closed 30 Apr 2026

Post-mortem postmortem-REC-20260422-06-SHRIRAMFIN-2026-04-29 completed on 2026-04-30T03:47:05Z.

Post-Mortem

partially correct

Exit correct

Review Return

Review price: ₹971.35

Full hold: -7.68%

Actual: -7.43%

Benchmarks

NIFTY 50: +0.10%

Excess: -7.53%

Sector excess: -6.23%

What If

Held full: -7.68%

Exited at WATCH: -3.82%

Thesis Analysis

The result event occurred and fundamentals were strong, but the market sold the stock after Q4. The earnings catalyst existed but price reaction failed.

Exit Analysis

Exit was appropriate after drawdown exceeded the earnings-play tolerance. Price near review remained around the exit zone, so holding did not improve the trade.

Verified Assumptions

A1 Failed

The meeting occurred and results were strong, but gross NPA ticked up slightly and the market reaction was negative.

A2 Failed

The stock failed the post-event price test and traded well below entry after results.

Lessons

high earnings_play_reaction_gate

For earnings plays, good headline results are insufficient; exit if the first post-result reaction breaks the technical gate.

moderate reddit_financials_validation

Reddit-originated NBFC ideas need extra asset-quality scrutiny before event holds.

Corporate Events

earnings 24 Apr 2026

upcoming

6

6

April 2026

26 Apr 2026

Adani Power

correct

HCL Technologies

wrong

Shriram Finance

partially correct