Track GNG | Performance

Alpha per trade — net of costs, vs NIFTY

-0.97pp

-28.16pp across 29 closed trades. This is the number that decides whether the system is worth running; accuracy is not.

Net expectancy / trade -0.41%

-0.07% gross, less 9.80pp of NSE transaction costs over the sample.

Payoff ratio 1.19x

+5.28% average win against -4.42% average loss, at a 41% hit rate.

Expectancy in R N/A

0 trades carry a recorded risk-per-share. Picks opened before the ATR risk model cannot be measured in R.

MFE capture (median) 55%

Share of each trade's peak that survived to the exit, over 15 trades that ran at least 1%. A low figure means the exit rule is cutting winners.

Benchmark over same windows +0.56%

NIFTY returned +16.36% in total across the matched holding periods.

Overall Accuracy

72%

+20% vs previous 5

Thesis Verdicts 29

5 correct, 16 partial, 8 wrong

Actual P&L 41%

12 profitable, 17 losses, 0 flat. Avg actual -0.07%

Exit Timing 14

3 premature, 1 too late, 11 N/A

Sector Breakdown

Automobiles and Auto Components

2 graded, avg full hold -3.62%

100% thesis C/P/W 0/2/0

Banking

2 graded, avg full hold -1.69%

50% thesis C/P/W 1/0/1

Capital Goods

2 graded, avg full hold -0.25%

100% thesis C/P/W 0/2/0

Information Technology

2 graded, avg full hold -6.83%

50% thesis C/P/W 0/1/1

Upstream Oil & Gas

2 graded, avg full hold -13.29%

0% thesis C/P/W 0/0/2

Aerospace and Defence Components

1 graded, avg full hold -1.59%

0% thesis C/P/W 0/0/1

Alcohol & Beverages (Alcobev)

1 graded, avg full hold -0.32%

100% thesis C/P/W 0/1/0

Auto Components

1 graded, avg full hold -1.10%

0% thesis C/P/W 0/0/1

Automobile

1 graded, avg full hold +4.42%

100% thesis C/P/W 0/1/0

Banks - Public Sector

1 graded, avg full hold +1.23%

100% thesis C/P/W 0/1/0

Chemicals - Specialty

1 graded, avg full hold +2.27%

100% thesis C/P/W 0/1/0

Construction and Engineering

1 graded, avg full hold -1.14%

100% thesis C/P/W 0/1/0

Consumer Electricals

1 graded, avg full hold +11.57%

100% thesis C/P/W 1/0/0

Defence

1 graded, avg full hold -3.83%

100% thesis C/P/W 0/1/0

Defence - Shipbuilding

1 graded, avg full hold +0.71%

100% thesis C/P/W 0/1/0

Defence Electronics

1 graded, avg full hold +5.60%

100% thesis C/P/W 0/1/0

Energy

1 graded, avg full hold +37.26%

100% thesis C/P/W 1/0/0

Financial Market Infrastructure

1 graded, avg full hold +4.29%

100% thesis C/P/W 1/0/0

Financial Services

1 graded, avg full hold -7.68%

100% thesis C/P/W 0/1/0

FMCG and Consumer Staples

1 graded, avg full hold -7.10%

0% thesis C/P/W 0/0/1

Media & Entertainment

1 graded, avg full hold -11.65%

0% thesis C/P/W 0/0/1

Metals

1 graded, avg full hold +5.23%

100% thesis C/P/W 0/1/0

Pharmaceuticals

1 graded, avg full hold +11.26%

100% thesis C/P/W 1/0/0

Shipping

1 graded, avg full hold +2.02%

100% thesis C/P/W 0/1/0

Thesis Type Breakdown

sector tailwind

15 graded, avg actual +0.30%

73% thesis C/P/W 3/8/4

earnings play

6 graded, avg actual -2.32%

83% thesis C/P/W 1/4/1

value fundamental

6 graded, avg actual +1.35%

67% thesis C/P/W 1/3/2

news catalyst

2 graded, avg actual -0.34%

50% thesis C/P/W 0/1/1

Last 10 Graded Picks

Pick	Sector	Thesis	Thesis Verdict	Exit Timing	Actual	Full Hold
AARTIIND Aarti Industries	Chemicals - Specialty	sector tailwind	Partial	N/A	Profit +2.27%	+2.27%
GRSE Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers	Defence - Shipbuilding	sector tailwind	Partial	N/A	Profit +0.71%	+0.71%
BEL Bharat Electronics	Defence Electronics	sector tailwind	Partial	N/A	Profit +5.60%	+5.60%
RADICO Radico Khaitan	Alcohol & Beverages (Alcobev)	value fundamental	Partial	N/A	Loss -0.32%	-0.32%
TATACONSUM Tata Consumer Products	FMCG and Consumer Staples	value fundamental	Wrong	Correct	Loss -5.60%	-7.10%
SBIN State Bank of India	Banks - Public Sector	value fundamental	Partial	N/A	Profit +5.36%	+1.23%
MOTHERSON Samvardhana Motherson International	Auto Components	value fundamental	Wrong	N/A	Loss -1.10%	-1.10%
LT Larsen & Toubro	Construction and Engineering	value fundamental	Partial	Correct	Loss -1.51%	-1.14%
TORNTPHARM Torrent Pharmaceuticals	Pharmaceuticals	value fundamental	Correct	Correct	Profit +11.26%	+11.26%
PTCIL PTC Industries	Aerospace and Defence Components	news catalyst	Wrong	N/A	Loss -1.59%	-1.59%

Assumption Library

Type	Sample	Verified	Hits	Misses	Hit Rate
earnings execution	30	19	9	10	47.4%
price action	19	18	13	5	72.2%
other	10	7	5	2	71.4%
institutional flow	3	2	1	1	50.0%
sector tailwind	3	3	0	3	0.0%
macro	2	1	0	1	0.0%
operating performance	2	1	1	0	100.0%
corporate event	1	1	1	0	100.0%

Active Learned Rules

sector_tailwind_short_window_target_gate

post_mortem / high / post_mortem.sector_tailwind

stop_loss_enforcement

post_mortem / high / post_mortem.value_fundamental

value_fundamental_target_reach_gate

post_mortem / high / post_mortem.value_fundamental

earnings_quality_normalization_gate

post_mortem / high / post_mortem.value_fundamental

sector_tailwind_macro_persistence_gate

post_mortem / high / post_mortem.sector_tailwind

post_result_price_confirmation_gate

post_mortem / high / post_mortem.earnings_play

sector_tailwind_catalyst_aware_exit_gate

post_mortem / high / post_mortem.sector_tailwind

order_book_thesis_margin_execution_gate

post_mortem / high / post_mortem.sector_tailwind

sector_tailwind_relative_strength_gate

post_mortem / high / post_mortem.sector_tailwind

verify_peer_event_date_before_earnings_play

post_mortem / high / post_mortem.earnings_play

media_political_event_risk_gate

post_mortem / high / post_mortem.sector_tailwind