Calendar

Immovable lifecycle review calendar

Blue dots are upcoming. Completed reviews turn green for correct thesis, red for wrong thesis, and orange when timing was off.

0

0 post-mortem tasks pending in tasks/pending/

This Month

6

0 upcoming, 6 historical review dates.

Completed

6

Review dates with post-mortems already ingested.

Month View

April 2026

Selected Date

30 Apr 2026

RITES

RITES • REVIEW_COMPLETE • news catalyst

Hold 10 days • Review / exit 30 Apr 2026

+0.92% Post-mortem done
Thesis

RITES is a PSU railway/infrastructure consultancy riding the capex cycle with fresh order visibility: Rs 105.69 cr RDSO test-track maintenance, Rs 45.2 cr West Bengal bridge consultancy, Rs 729 cr Mysuru-Hassan-Mangaluru electrification revision. Stock +12% in April as midcap breadth expanded. This is the exploratory mid-cap slot the system has been missing — PSU status, multi-year order backlog, and alignment with the L&T/Cummins capex cluster. Short-hold trade into Q4 FY26 announcement (late May) rather than a long-dated position.

Prices

Entry: ₹219.42

Current: ₹221.43

P&L: +0.92%

Hold Plan

Target hold: 10 days

Held so far: 2 days

Review / exit: 30 Apr 2026

Review complete

Assumptions

A1: Daily delivery volumes on RITES support 3-5% position size without material slippage (liquidity check)

A2: Q4 FY26 result date falls in late May 2026 consistent with prior-year pattern

Lifecycle Timeline
Bought 20 Apr 2026

Accepted from analysis task analysis-2026-04-20-0830

Confirmed and held 21 Apr 2026

Down 0.4% since entry but mid-cap bid continues; order-book narrative intact (RDSO ₹105.7 cr, Mysuru-Hassan ₹729 cr revision). Review date April 30 gives 9 sessions to play out into Q4 announcement window (late May). Stop held at -3% (news_catalyst drawdown tolerance).

Flagged for a closer look 21 Apr 2026

RITES closed near Rs 220.19 versus the Rs 219.42 entry, so the trade is only marginally positive. The order-book catalyst remains valid, but Dhan technicals show price below the 200-DMA and stochastic overbought, so this should be monitored rather than treated as a clean hold.

Sold 22 Apr 2026

RITES is slightly above the Rs 219.42 entry, but the latest Dhan technical snapshot showed price below the 200-DMA while stochastic was overbought. Since this is a bullish news-catalyst thesis and the configured technical gate rejects below-200DMA setups, exit rather than extend the short-hold trade.

Reviewed and closed 30 Apr 2026

Post-mortem postmortem-REC-20260420-07-RITES-2026-04-30 completed on 2026-04-30T03:47:05Z.

Post-Mortem

partially correct

Exit correct
Review Return

Review price: ₹219.28

Full hold: -0.06%

Actual: +0.92%

Benchmarks

NIFTY 50: +0.30%

Excess: +0.62%

Sector excess: +0.12%

What If

Held full: -0.06%

Exited at WATCH: +1.03%

Thesis Analysis

Order visibility was real, but the technical setup was not clean enough. Price stayed near entry rather than delivering the expected news-catalyst move.

Exit Analysis

Exit at Rs 221.43 avoided a flat-to-negative full hold. The stock was near Rs 219.28 by review, below the exit price.

Verified Assumptions
A1 Verified

Liquidity was adequate for small sizing; later public data showed traded volumes sufficient for a personal position.

A2 Verified

Latest public estimates place the next earnings date in May 2026, consistent with the expected Q4 announcement window.

Lessons
high midcap_technical_gate

Exploratory mid-cap news trades must pass the 200-DMA gate before entry, not merely during review.

moderate news_catalyst_timing

Order-win narratives need a near-term price trigger; otherwise short news-catalyst holds decay quickly.

Corporate Events

No corporate events attached.