This Month
5
0 upcoming, 5 historical review dates.
Calendar
Immovable lifecycle review calendar
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0 post-mortem tasks pending in tasks/pending/
Completed
5
Review dates with post-mortems already ingested.
Selected Date
1 Jun 2026
National Aluminium Company
NATIONALUM • REVIEW_COMPLETE • sector tailwind
Hold 17 days • Review / exit 1 Jun 2026
-0.74% Post-mortem done
National Aluminium Company
NATIONALUM • REVIEW_COMPLETE • sector tailwind
Hold 17 days • Review / exit 1 Jun 2026
NALCO is a liquid metals-sector candidate with fresh policy support from the gold and silver import-duty hike and company-reported record FY26 profit. The setup is acceptable only while price stays above the 200-DMA and metals remain in relative leadership.
Prices
Entry: ₹403.35
Current: ₹400.35
P&L: -0.74%
Hold Plan
Target hold: 17 days
Held so far: 4 days
Review / exit: 1 Jun 2026
Review complete
Assumptions
A1: The metal-sector rotation continues and NALCO does not close below its 50-DMA for two consecutive sessions.
A2: Global aluminium and base-metal prices do not reverse sharply before the next review.
Bought 15 May 2026
Accepted from analysis task analysis-2026-05-15-1120
Flagged for a closer look 18 May 2026
Price is near entry and above the 200-DMA, but metals lost relative strength on 15 May and MACD evidence is bearish.
Sold 19 May 2026
At about ₹400.45, NALCO is below the reported MA200 sell zone near ₹409-₹418, so the original above-200-DMA thesis condition has failed.
Reviewed and closed 1 Jun 2026
Post-mortem postmortem-REC-20260515-01-NATIONALUM-2026-06-01 completed on 2026-06-01T03:19:15.952Z.
Post-Mortem
Exit prematurepartially correct
Review Return
Review price: ₹424.45
Full hold: +5.23%
Actual: -0.74%
Benchmarks
NIFTY 50: -0.40%
Excess: +5.64%
Sector excess: +4.18%
What If
Held full: +5.23%
Exited at WATCH: -0.20%
Thesis Analysis
Company profit and aluminium support were real; early metal/NALCO technical leadership broke, causing exit. Later rebound delivered +5.2% and outperformed NIFTY/metal but missed the 10% target.
Exit Analysis
Technically defensible because the moving-average guardrails failed by 19 May, but premature in outcome; aluminium and sector prices recovered and the stock closed at Rs 424.45 by review.
Verified Assumptions
A1 Failed
Failed: NALCO closed below calculated 50-DMA on 18 May and 19 May; NIFTY Metal also slipped from 13,300.60 on 15 May to 13,163.75 on 19 May.
A2 Verified
Passed: LME aluminium cash-settlement rose from $3,635/t on 15 May to $3,769.50/t on 29 May, so there was no sharp reversal before review.
Lessons
moderate sector_tailwind_relative_strength_gate
For commodity sector-tailwind exits, pair stock moving-average breaks with sector and commodity confirmation; a single technical breach can exit before the underlying tailwind reasserts.
No corporate events attached.