This Month
5
0 upcoming, 5 historical review dates.
Calendar
Immovable lifecycle review calendar
0
0 post-mortem tasks pending in tasks/pending/
Completed
5
Review dates with post-mortems already ingested.
Selected Date
9 Jun 2026
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation
ONGC • REVIEW_COMPLETE • sector tailwind
Hold 21 days • Review / exit 9 Jun 2026
-8.13% Post-mortem done
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation
ONGC • REVIEW_COMPLETE • sector tailwind
Hold 21 days • Review / exit 9 Jun 2026
ONGC has a current policy and macro tailwind from lower royalty rates and elevated crude. The setup is acceptable only while price holds above the 200-DMA and crude remains firm.
Prices
Entry: ₹297.50
Current: ₹273.30
P&L: -8.13%
Hold Plan
Target hold: 21 days
Held so far: 9 days
Review / exit: 9 Jun 2026
Review complete
Assumptions
A1: Brent stays above $100 and upstream royalty relief remains in force.
A2: ONGC price does not close below the 200-DMA during the hold window.
Bought 19 May 2026
Accepted from analysis task analysis-2026-05-19-0830
Confirmed and held 20 May 2026
ONGC is near Rs 296.5 versus Rs 297.5 entry and remains above its 200-DMA while crude stays firm, so the sector-tailwind thesis is intact.
Flagged for a closer look 21 May 2026
Auto-WATCH: earnings event on 2026-05-26 is 5 days away
Back to normal 21 May 2026
ONGC closed near Rs 298.30 versus Rs 297.50 entry and remains above its 200-DMA while crude and royalty relief support the thesis.
Flagged for a closer look 22 May 2026
Auto-WATCH: earnings event on 2026-05-26 is 4 days away
Sold 28 May 2026
The stock closed near Rs 274.05, below the 6% stop from entry and slightly below the cited 200-SMA after Q4.
Reviewed and closed 9 Jun 2026
Post-mortem postmortem-REC-20260519-01-ONGC-2026-06-09 completed on 2026-06-09T08:46:57+05:30.
Post-Mortem
Exit correctwrong
Review Return
Review price: ₹264.65
Full hold: -11.04%
Actual: -8.13%
Benchmarks
NIFTY 50: -2.10%
Excess: -8.95%
Sector excess: -8.93%
What If
Held full: -11.04%
Exited at WATCH: -0.57%
Thesis Analysis
Royalty relief remained supportive, but Brent fell below $100 and ONGC broke its cited 200-DMA after results. The stock lost 11.04% and underperformed both NIFTY 50 and the Nifty Oil & Gas proxy by nearly nine percentage points.
Exit Analysis
Exiting after the stop and technical breakdown limited the loss to 8.13%. Holding through review would have lost 11.04%, so the exit preserved about 2.91 percentage points despite slippage beyond the stated 6% stop.
Verified Assumptions
A1 Failed
The May 8 royalty-rate relief remained in force, but Brent fell from about $111.28 on May 19 to below $100 from May 26 and closed near $94.25 on June 8.
A2 Failed
ONGC closed at Rs 274.05 on May 27; the cited contemporaneous technical reading placed its 200-SMA near Rs 275.42, confirming a close below the required support.
Lessons
high sector_tailwind_relative_strength_gate
A sector tailwind should not override stock-specific post-result relative weakness; require price confirmation after a scheduled earnings event before maintaining the position.
high sector_tailwind_macro_persistence_gate
Macro assumptions expressed as price thresholds need daily persistence checks because a rapid crude reversal can invalidate an upstream thesis before the planned review date.
earnings 26 May 2026
upcoming