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Selected Date
11 Jun 2026
Oil India
OIL • REVIEW_COMPLETE • sector tailwind
Hold 21 days • Review / exit 11 Jun 2026
-5.14% Post-mortem done
Oil India
OIL • REVIEW_COMPLETE • sector tailwind
Hold 21 days • Review / exit 11 Jun 2026
Oil India has converging support from a 62% YoY Q4 consolidated profit jump, elevated crude and the recent royalty-rate relief for upstream producers. The stock passes the 200-DMA, RSI and MACD gates, making it a cleaner crude-linked add than stretched power or metal names.
Prices
Entry: ₹506.00
Current: ₹480.00
P&L: -5.14%
Hold Plan
Target hold: 21 days
Held so far: 19 days
Review / exit: 11 Jun 2026
Review complete
Assumptions
A1: Brent remains firm enough for upstream earnings sensitivity to stay positive through the first review window.
A2: The royalty-rate relief is not offset by a new adverse government levy or price-control action.
Bought 21 May 2026
Accepted from analysis task analysis-2026-05-21-0830
Confirmed and held 22 May 2026
At about Rs 503.7 versus Rs 506 entry, price remains above the 200-SMA near Rs 440.8 and the crude-linked thesis is intact.
Flagged for a closer look 26 May 2026
At about Rs 483 versus Rs 506 entry, the position is near the sector-tailwind drawdown limit and crude has cooled.
Sold 9 Jun 2026
At ₹481 the stock is about 4.9% below entry and near the sector-tailwind drawdown limit, while bearish MACD and weak relative strength show crude is not confirming the thesis.
Reviewed and closed 11 Jun 2026
Post-mortem postmortem-REC-20260521-03-OIL-2026-06-11 completed on 2026-06-11T03:34:06Z.
Post-Mortem
Exit correctwrong
Review Return
Review price: ₹427.35
Full hold: -15.54%
Actual: -5.14%
Benchmarks
NIFTY 50: -1.86%
Excess: -13.68%
Sector excess: -10.49%
What If
Held full: -15.54%
Exited at WATCH: -4.55%
Thesis Analysis
Royalty relief and strong results were real, but crude support did not persist and Oil India materially underperformed both NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Oil & Gas. The sector-tailwind thesis lacked durable relative-strength confirmation.
Exit Analysis
The June 9 exit near the drawdown limit was justified by bearish momentum and sector-relative weakness. Holding through June 10 would have worsened the loss from 5.14% to 15.54%.
Verified Assumptions
A1 Failed
Brent stayed elevated but reversed sharply near $91 by June 10; the decline triggered heavy selling in upstream producers and invalidated the required persistence.
A2 Verified
The upstream royalty relief remained in force, with no new adverse levy or price-control action on Oil India's crude production identified during the hold window.
Lessons
high sector_tailwind_macro_persistence_gate
Upstream sector-tailwind picks require daily crude-persistence and stock-relative-strength checks; policy relief and earnings growth cannot compensate when the commodity signal reverses.
No corporate events attached.