This Month
5
0 upcoming, 5 historical review dates.
Calendar
Immovable lifecycle review calendar
0
0 post-mortem tasks pending in tasks/pending/
Completed
5
Review dates with post-mortems already ingested.
Selected Date
14 Jun 2026
PTC Industries
PTCIL • REVIEW_COMPLETE • news catalyst
Hold 10 days • Review / exit 14 Jun 2026
-6.08% Post-mortem done
PTC Industries
PTCIL • REVIEW_COMPLETE • news catalyst
Hold 10 days • Review / exit 14 Jun 2026
PTC Industries has a fresh Q4 FY26 catalyst with consolidated FY26 revenue nearly doubling and net profit rising sharply, while the stock is above the 200-DMA with bullish MACD. This is an exploratory mid-cap breakout, so the stop must stay tight after the recent spike.
Prices
Entry: ₹18,900.00
Current: ₹17,750.00
P&L: -6.08%
Hold Plan
Target hold: 10 days
Held so far: 14 days
Review / exit: 14 Jun 2026
Review complete
Assumptions
A1: The breakout remains valid only if price holds above the stop zone near Rs 17,784 and volume does not dry up after the results spike.
A2: The FY26 earnings improvement must be supported by order execution rather than only valuation rerating.
Bought 4 Jun 2026
Accepted from analysis task analysis-2026-06-04-0830
Confirmed and held 5 Jun 2026
At about ₹18,634 versus ₹18,900 entry, the Q4 catalyst is intact and price remains above the 200-DMA, but the position needs the tight 6% stop.
Flagged for a closer look 9 Jun 2026
Auto-WATCH: drawdown -3.3% exceeds tolerance -3% for news_catalyst
Sold 18 Jun 2026
Auto-EXIT: P&L -6.1% breached stop loss -6%
Reviewed and closed 14 Aug 2026
Post-mortem postmortem-REC-20260604-05-PTCIL-2026-06-15 completed on 2026-06-15T09:00:00+05:30.
Post-Mortem
Exit n awrong
Review Return
Review price: ₹18,600.00
Full hold: -1.59%
Actual: -1.59%
Benchmarks
NIFTY 50: +0.88%
Excess: -2.47%
Sector excess: -0.54%
What If
Held full: -1.59%
Exited at WATCH: -3.28%
Thesis Analysis
Q4 FY26 catalyst was genuine - FY26 revenue +96%, PAT +66%, Q4 PAT +143% - but the +20% results spike was already priced; entry three days later near the 52-week high saw no follow-through, closing -1.6% versus NIFTY +0.9%. Directional call failed.
Exit Analysis
No exit was triggered; the June 9 auto-WATCH flagged a -3.3% drawdown (beyond -3% tolerance) but the 6% stop (Rs 17,766) never broke and the pick stayed WATCH through review. Holding recovered to -1.6%, better than the watch-level -3.3%.
Verified Assumptions
A1 Failed
Price held above the ~Rs 17,784 stop zone through review (window low ~Rs 18,138 on Jun 11; 6% stop never triggered), but the breakout did not remain valid: no volume follow-through after the results spike, stock faded to -1.6% at review and broke below the zone days later (~Rs 17,150 by Jun 30). The price floor held; the breakout did not.
A2 Verified
FY26 improvement was execution-led, not rerating: revenue +95.7% to Rs 602.8 cr with Q4 EBITDA margin +862bps to ~32%; Aerolloy (titanium/superalloys) scaled to ~41% of consolidated EBITDA; Safran engine-component and Rs 100+ cr BrahMos orders support the order book. Delivered earnings, backed by real order execution.
Lessons
high post_result_price_confirmation_gate
A genuine results catalyst is insufficient for a short-hold news_catalyst entry when the entry comes after the news spike is priced: PTCIL entered ~3 days after a +20% results jump near its 52-week high and faded -1.6% with no follow-through. Require post-spike price confirmation before accepting the catalyst entry.
moderate news_catalyst_relative_strength_gate
Exploratory mid-cap news breakouts can miss while the sector benchmark is flat (sector excess only -0.54%) and then fail to participate when the sector rallies (Nifty India Defence +6.5%+ the week after review while PTCIL broke below its stop zone). Add a relative-strength check versus the sector index for post-spike mid-cap catalyst plays.
No corporate events attached.