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9 Jul 2026
Larsen & Toubro
LT • REVIEW_COMPLETE • value fundamental
Hold 48 days • Review / exit 9 Jul 2026
-1.51% Post-mortem done
Larsen & Toubro
LT • REVIEW_COMPLETE • value fundamental
Hold 48 days • Review / exit 9 Jul 2026
L&T has strong FY26 order-book visibility and trades just above key moving averages after digesting Q4 results. The setup offers a conservative capex-linked add outside the already crowded oil exposure.
Prices
Entry: ₹3,931.00
Current: ₹3,871.70
P&L: -1.51%
Hold Plan
Target hold: 48 days
Held so far: 21 days
Review / exit: 9 Jul 2026
Review complete
Assumptions
A1: Order-book visibility and capex flows support a move toward Rs 4,350 within the review window.
Bought 22 May 2026
Accepted from analysis task analysis-2026-05-22-0830
Flagged for a closer look 25 May 2026
At about Rs 3,933, LT is flat to entry and above the 200-DMA, but bearish MACD keeps it on watch until momentum improves.
Back to normal 26 May 2026
At about Rs 4,035 versus Rs 3,931 entry, the order-book thesis remains intact and price is still above the 200-DMA zone.
Flagged for a closer look 1 Jun 2026
Auto-WATCH: agm event on 2026-06-05 is 4 days away
Back to normal 1 Jun 2026
At Rs 4,090 versus Rs 3,931 entry, the capex thesis is working and price remains above the 200-DMA.
Flagged for a closer look 2 Jun 2026
Auto-WATCH: agm event on 2026-06-05 is 3 days away
Back to normal 3 Jun 2026
At about ₹4,001, the stock is above entry and above its 200-DMA, while MACD and MA structure still support the capex thesis.
Flagged for a closer look 4 Jun 2026
Auto-WATCH: agm event on 2026-06-05 is 1 days away
Back to normal 4 Jun 2026
At Rs 3,953.20 the stock remains above the Rs 3,931 entry and 200-DMA, but bearish MACD keeps sizing unchanged.
Flagged for a closer look 5 Jun 2026
Auto-WATCH: agm event on 2026-06-05 is 0 days away
Back to normal 5 Jun 2026
At about ₹3,948 versus ₹3,931 entry, the stock is close to entry and technicals remain above the 200-DMA with positive MACD.
Flagged for a closer look 9 Jun 2026
At ₹3,875.50 the stock is 1.4% below entry and has slipped just below its ₹3,897 200-SMA with bearish MACD despite a strong order book.
Sold 12 Jun 2026
At ₹3,862 L&T is 1.8% below entry, below its ₹3,906 200-DMA and below every tracked moving average, invalidating the bullish technical gate.
Reviewed and closed 14 Aug 2026
Post-mortem postmortem-REC-20260522-05-LT-2026-07-09 completed on 2026-08-14T03:15:00.000Z.
Post-Mortem
Exit correctpartially correct
Review Return
Review price: ₹3,886.00
Full hold: -1.14%
Actual: -1.51%
Benchmarks
NIFTY 50: +1.03%
Excess: -2.54%
Sector excess: -1.15%
What If
Held full: -1.14%
Exited at WATCH: +0.05%
Thesis Analysis
Order-book premise validated — Q1 FY27 showed a record ₹7.79 lakh crore order book with +14% inflow growth — but price fell to ₹3,886 by review, far below the ₹4,350 target. Fundamentals were right; momentum and margin execution (EBITDA margin down to 9.0%) were not.
Exit Analysis
Exit at ₹3,871.7 (-1.5%) after the 200-DMA and all moving averages broke was timely — the stock slid to ₹3,720 in late July before a post-Q1-results recovery. Holding to review would have been similar (-1.1%), so no upside was foregone.
Verified Assumptions
A1 Failed
Order-book visibility was real — Q1 FY27 order inflow +14% YoY and a record ₹7.79 lakh crore book — but the ₹4,350 move never materialized; the stock closed the window at ₹3,886 (-1.1% vs entry).
Lessons
high order_book_thesis_margin_execution_gate
Second consecutive LT post-mortem where strong order-book inflows alone did not drive relative performance; margin execution (EBITDA margin contracted to 9.0% in Q1 FY27) and technical breakdown dominated the outcome.
high post_result_price_confirmation_gate
Value entry 'after digesting results' without momentum confirmation remains vulnerable — LT broke its 200-DMA within three weeks of entry and the rule-driven exit at -1.5% avoided a further slide to ₹3,720. Require price stabilization before entry.
ex dividend 22 May 2026
upcoming
agm 5 Jun 2026
upcoming