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21 Jul 2026
Samvardhana Motherson International
MOTHERSON • REVIEW_COMPLETE • value fundamental
Hold 48 days • Review / exit 21 Jul 2026
+15.64% Post-mortem done
Samvardhana Motherson International
MOTHERSON • REVIEW_COMPLETE • value fundamental
Hold 48 days • Review / exit 21 Jul 2026
Motherson has fresh Q4 FY26 evidence with revenue up 17 percent YoY, EBITDA up about 42 percent and margin recovery, while the stock remains above the 200-DMA with bullish MACD. The setup adds a non-overlapping auto-component exposure without forcing an overbought IT or solar trade.
Prices
Entry: ₹145.00
Current: ₹167.68
P&L: +15.64%
Hold Plan
Target hold: 48 days
Held so far: 72 days
Review / exit: 21 Jul 2026
Review complete
Assumptions
A1: The Q4 margin recovery continues to support investor interest through the next results-review window.
A2: Price does not close below the stop zone near ₹136 before the expected hold review.
Bought 3 Jun 2026
Accepted from analysis task analysis-2026-06-03-0830
Flagged for a closer look 4 Jun 2026
At Rs 145.61 the stock is just above the Rs 145 entry and above the 200-DMA, but RSI near 80 makes fresh risk unattractive.
Back to normal 5 Aug 2026
Trading at Rs 147.25, up 1.6% from Rs 145 entry. Technicals are strengthening: RSI 59-61 bullish, MACD positive and expanding, price well above 200-DMA (~Rs 119-135). Q4 PAT up 46% YoY with EBITDA up 42% confirms the value_fundamental thesis. June 12 institutional investor meetings and credit rating revision are incremental positives. Review date July 21 still ahead with Rs 160 target in sight.
Flagged for a closer look 5 Aug 2026
At ~Rs 150.8 vs entry Rs 145 (+4%) after a -2.4% post-Q1 reaction; Q1 topline surged but profit growth was muted and margins contracted, so the catalyst is weak even though the Rs 160 target and Rs 136 stop are both untested.
Back to normal 5 Aug 2026
Rs 146.5 (+1.0% vs entry Rs 145); RSI ~50 neutral, price above the 200-DMA (Rs 121), June European car registrations +13% YoY support the thesis; Rs 160 target by the July 21 review.
Flagged for a closer look 10 Aug 2026
Auto-WATCH: price ₹168.90 reached target ₹160.00 — review for exit
Back to normal 13 Aug 2026
Traded ₹142.7-146.3 around July 10 (-1.6% from ₹145 entry), well above the ₹136.3 stop; Nuvama ₹168 target and 21-analyst coverage with 0 sell ratings keep the thesis intact; ex-dividend ₹0.25 on July 14.
Flagged for a closer look 13 Aug 2026
Rs 160 target hit - stock is ~Rs 166 (record high Rs 168.95) after a record Q1, so bank the 10%+ gain per target-hit policy; revised analyst targets (Rs 165-190) suggest upside could continue.
Back to normal 13 Aug 2026
₹142.5 vs entry ₹145 (-1.7%); RSI ~50, MACD positive, price ~15-19% above the 200-DMA (~₹123), and Nuvama raised its target to ₹168 - thesis intact ahead of the Jul 21 review.
Flagged for a closer look 13 Aug 2026
Q1 profit +102% (Aug 6) drove a ~7% surge to a 52-week high of Rs 164.60, exceeding the Rs 160 target; +13% vs entry Rs 145 - target hit, move to watch per target_hit_action.
Back to normal 13 Aug 2026
Price ~Rs 150-155 after weekly breakout vs entry Rs 145 (+4-7%); Q1 record revenue +17% and PAT +102% confirm the thesis; Rs 160 target ~3-6% away, hold with support at Rs 142.
Flagged for a closer look 13 Aug 2026
MOTHERSON at ~Rs 168 vs Rs 145 entry (+16%) - Q1 PAT doubled to Rs 1,032 cr and the Rs 160 target was breached on Aug 7; per config the target-hit action moves it to WATCH with analysts at Rs 165-178.
Back to normal 13 Aug 2026
At ₹145.91 vs entry ₹145 (flat); thesis intact - Nuvama Buy TP ₹168 (Jul 16), Yutaka Giken deal closed Jul 22, EU car sales +13% in June - and price holds above the 200-DMA and the ₹136.3 stop-loss.
Flagged for a closer look 13 Aug 2026
At Rs 167.68 (+15.6% vs entry Rs 145) the Rs 160 target has been exceeded on record Q1 results (PAT +101.6%) - target-hit rule moves the pick to WATCH; analysts have raised targets to Rs 165-190, so a re-entry on a pullback to Rs 160 can be considered.
Reviewed and closed 14 Aug 2026
Post-mortem postmortem-REC-20260603-05-MOTHERSON-2026-07-21 completed on 2026-08-14T03:30:00Z.
Post-Mortem
Exit n awrong
Review Return
Review price: ₹143.40
Full hold: -1.10%
Actual: -1.10%
Benchmarks
NIFTY 50: +3.34%
Excess: -4.44%
Sector excess: -5.66%
What If
Held full: -1.10%
Exited at WATCH: +0.03%
Thesis Analysis
Fundamentals held (Q1 FY27 later confirmed record revenue and margin expansion), but the stock was flat-to-down at -1.1% and lagged NIFTY (+3.34%) and Nifty Auto (+4.55%). The Rs 160 target was never approached; a miss.
Exit Analysis
No exit triggered. The pick stayed WATCH from June 4, never closed below the Rs 136 stop zone (lowest close Rs 140.75 on Jul 8; intraday low Rs 138.30 on Jul 7), and reached review at Rs 143.4.
Verified Assumptions
A1 Verified
Margin recovery continued - Q1 FY27 (announced Aug 6, after the window) showed record revenue +17% YoY and EBITDA +26-30% with margin expansion - but it did not translate into price gains; the stock was flat-to-down through the hold.
A2 Verified
Never closed below the Rs 136 stop zone; lowest close was Rs 140.75 (Jul 8) with an intraday low of Rs 138.30 (Jul 7) during the crude/Iran selloff. Stop not breached.
Lessons
moderate overbought_entry_rsi_velocity_gate
Entry timing, not the fundamental story, was the failure: RSI reached ~80 within a day of entry (flagged in the June 4 lifecycle note), and the stock then returned -1.1% versus +3.34% for NIFTY over the hold. Value-fundamental entries after a strong earnings-driven run need an RSI-trajectory (momentum velocity) gate, not just an RSI level check.
moderate sector_tailwind_relative_strength_gate
Intact fundamentals conferred no relative strength: Motherson lagged Nifty Auto (+4.55%) by ~5.7pp despite the margin-recovery evidence. Require post-entry relative-strength confirmation against the sector index for value_fundamental picks, extending sector_tailwind_relative_strength_gate.
ex dividend 14 Jul 2026
upcoming
agm 30 Jul 2026
upcoming