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29 Jul 2026
State Bank of India
SBIN • REVIEW_COMPLETE • value fundamental
Hold 48 days • Review / exit 29 Jul 2026
+7.59% Post-mortem done
State Bank of India
SBIN • REVIEW_COMPLETE • value fundamental
Hold 48 days • Review / exit 29 Jul 2026
SBI combines 16.9% FY26 credit growth, improving asset quality, record annual profit, and a post-results valuation reset. The stock is above its 200-DMA with bullish MACD, while a Rs 1,150 review-date target remains below Kotak's Rs 1,250 objective.
Prices
Entry: ₹1,000.85
Current: ₹1,076.80
P&L: +7.59%
Hold Plan
Target hold: 48 days
Held so far: 64 days
Review / exit: 29 Jul 2026
Review complete
Assumptions
A1: SBI holds above the Rs 990-992 200-DMA zone and NIM pressure does not materially worsen.
A2: The market does not suffer a fresh oil-led systemic sell-off during the holding period.
Bought 11 Jun 2026
Accepted from analysis task analysis-2026-06-11-0830
Confirmed and held 12 Jun 2026
At ₹1,000.70 SBI is near entry, above its ₹991 200-DMA, and the ₹1,250 broker target keeps the value thesis intact.
Flagged for a closer look 15 Jun 2026
Auto-WATCH: agm event on 2026-06-18 is 3 days away
Back to normal 5 Aug 2026
At about Rs 1,052.5 SBI is 5.2% above entry, above its 200-DMA, and still below the Rs 1,150 target.
Flagged for a closer look 5 Aug 2026
Technicals have deteriorated meaningfully: RSI slid to ~40-42 (bearish zone), daily MACD is negative across sources, and price (~₹1,039) is near 200-DMA (~₹984). Q1 FY27 results were mixed (EPS beat but revenue miss). Past review date of July 29. Strong fundamental backdrop (record FY26 profit, ₹60K Cr fundraising, consensus Strong Buy target ₹1,197) but technical weakness warrants caution.
Back to normal 5 Aug 2026
Up 3.4% from entry at Rs 1,034.50; above 200-DMA with bullish MACD and RSI ~49-55 (neutral, not extended). Equity raise approved with 99.92% vote. PSU banks stable with asset quality improving. Target Rs 1,150 (14.6% from entry) and 7% stop at Rs 930.79 intact. Review date July 29.
Reviewed and closed 14 Aug 2026
Post-mortem postmortem-REC-20260611-05-SBIN-2026-08-06 completed on 2026-08-14T03:30:00Z.
Post-Mortem
Exit n apartially correct
Review Return
Review price: ₹1,054.50
Full hold: +1.23%
Actual: +5.36%
Benchmarks
NIFTY 50: +6.32%
Excess: -0.96%
Sector excess: +2.50%
What If
Held full: +1.23%
Exited at WATCH: +1.55%
Thesis Analysis
Fundamentals validated: record Q1 FY27 profit, two-decade-low NPAs, NIM up QoQ, strong credit growth. But stock rose only +5.36% (weak hit), underperforming NIFTY by ~1% and far short of the Rs 1,150 target. Direction right, re-rating magnitude missed.
Exit Analysis
No exit triggered: stop (Rs 930.79) never breached, target never hit, pick still ACTIVE past July 29 review. Aug 5 WATCH flag on technical deterioration was reversed same-day on conflicting source signals.
Verified Assumptions
A1 Verified
Price held above the 200-DMA (~Rs 984-991) throughout; July 24 intraday low Rs 1,000.80 held. Q1 FY27 domestic NIM 3.00% (+7bps QoQ) and whole-bank NIM 2.86% (+5bps) - NIM improved rather than worsened.
A2 Verified
NIFTY 50 rose ~6.3% (23,161.60 to 24,624.65) over the window; RBI held repo at 5.25% and launched a concessional FX swap facility. No oil-led systemic sell-off occurred.
Lessons
high value_fundamental_target_reach_gate
A +14.6% target on a large PSU bank after a post-results valuation reset was aggressive: fundamentals delivered (record Q1 profit, two-decade-low NPAs) but the stock underperformed NIFTY (+5.36% vs +6.32%). Calibrate value-fundamental target_move_pct to sector-relative re-rating potential, not broker objectives.
moderate catalyst_aware_review_date_gate
SBI's meaningful gains came only after the July 29 review date (Q1 results, RBI policy, equity-raise approval); at review the position was just +1.2%, later ~+5.4%. Value-fundamental review dates should account for near-dated earnings catalysts rather than ending exactly at hold expiry.
moderate technical_signal_consensus_gate
Same-day technical reads conflicted on Aug 5 (RSI 40-42 bearish vs 49-55 neutral; MACD negative vs positive across sources), causing WATCH-to-ACTIVE whipsaw. Require multi-source technical consensus or a tie-break rule before flipping status on post-review picks.
agm 18 Jun 2026
upcoming