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24 Aug 2026
Radico Khaitan
RADICO • REVIEW_COMPLETE • value fundamental
Hold 10 days • Review / exit 24 Aug 2026
-0.32% Post-mortem done
Radico Khaitan
RADICO • REVIEW_COMPLETE • value fundamental
Hold 10 days • Review / exit 24 Aug 2026
Radico is compounding on premiumisation: Q1 FY27 net profit jumped 76% YoY to ₹229.6 cr with a record 20.7% EBITDA margin, Prestige & Above volumes rose 35.8%, and FY27 premium-growth guidance was raised to 25%+. The stock is at a fresh 52-week high (~₹4,499) above all key moving averages with Motilal Oswal Wealth's ₹5,000 target (~11% upside) and a near-debt-free balance sheet.
Prices
Entry: ₹4,651.00
Current: ₹4,636.00
P&L: -0.32%
Hold Plan
Target hold: 10 days
Held so far: 10 days
Review / exit: 24 Aug 2026
Review complete
Assumptions
A1: P&A premium volume growth stays above 20% through Q2-Q3 FY27
A2: Stock holds above the ₹4,230 stop zone over the 10-day hold window
Bought 14 Aug 2026
Accepted from analysis task analysis-2026-08-07-0830
Confirmed and held 14 Aug 2026
Day 1 of a 10-day hold at ₹4,675.20 (+0.5% vs entry ₹4,651); fresh 52-week high on record Q1 momentum, but consensus target ₹4,665 is now at price so the remaining upside depends on momentum toward the ₹5,000 pick target.
Reviewed and closed 24 Aug 2026
Post-mortem postmortem-REC-20260814-07-RADICO-2026-08-24 completed on 2026-08-24T03:20:35Z.
Post-Mortem
Exit n apartially correct
Review Return
Review price: ₹4,636.00
Full hold: -0.32%
Actual: -0.32%
Benchmarks
NIFTY 50: -0.47%
Excess: +0.15%
Sector excess: +3.63%
What If
Held full: -0.32%
Exited at WATCH: +1.76%
Thesis Analysis
Fundamentals delivered as thesis stated (Q1 PAT +76% YoY, record 20.7% EBITDA margin, P&A +35.8%) and the stock held up far better than a FMCG sector de-rating on crude/inflation (-0.32% vs -3.95%). But entry at a 52-week high with consensus target (~₹4,665) at price left ~7% broker-target headroom that never materialized; stock peaked +2% and faded.
Exit Analysis
No exit triggered during the 10-day hold: the ₹5,000 target was never approached and the ₹4,372 stop zone (6%) was never at risk (window low ~₹4,576). Position closed at review on day 10 at -0.32%.
Verified Assumptions
A1 Pending
Not yet verifiable - Q2-Q3 FY27 P&A volume data not released (verify by 2026-11-15). Q1 FY27 P&A volumes of +35.8% and raised 25%+ FY27 premium-growth guidance remain supportive, but no fresh evidence within the hold window.
A2 Verified
Verified: stock never approached the ₹4,230 stop zone. Max adverse excursion was only -1.62% (~₹4,576), and the stock closed the hold window at ₹4,636, well above the stop.
Lessons
high value_fundamental_target_reach_gate
Entering a value_fundamental pick at a fresh 52-week high when the prevailing consensus target is already at/above price (~₹4,665 vs ₹4,651 entry) leaves almost no room for the broker-objective target (₹5,000) to be reached; MFE capped at +2% and the pick closed -0.32%. Require entry price to sit below consensus target by a meaningful margin before accepting broker-objective targets.
moderate value_fundamental_sector_relative_gate
Raw-return misses can hide correct relative calls: RADICO's -0.32% was +0.15pp vs NIFTY (-0.47%) and +3.63pp vs Nifty FMCG (-3.95%) during a crude/inflation-driven FMCG de-rating. Alcobev premiumisation held defensive relative strength, so value_fundamental grading should weigh sector-relative performance, not just absolute move.
No corporate events attached.