This Month
4
0 upcoming, 4 historical review dates.
Calendar
Immovable lifecycle review calendar
0
0 post-mortem tasks pending in tasks/pending/
Completed
4
Review dates with post-mortems already ingested.
Selected Date
27 Aug 2026
Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers
GRSE • REVIEW_COMPLETE • sector tailwind
Hold 10 days • Review / exit 27 Aug 2026
+0.71% Post-mortem done
Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers
GRSE • REVIEW_COMPLETE • sector tailwind
Hold 10 days • Review / exit 27 Aug 2026
GRSE is compounding on India's naval build-up: Q1 FY27 revenue +38.5% YoY to ₹1,814.6 cr and PAT +43.8% to ₹172.8 cr (17th straight growth quarter), with a ₹13,596 cr order book, a fresh ₹1,032 cr ONGC Platform Supply Vessel award and a ~₹1.5 lakh cr defence pipeline (incl. P75 Bravo). Consensus is Buy with a ₹3,146 avg target (~20% upside) and the stock trades above its 200-day EMA with a fresh weekly breakout.
Prices
Entry: ₹2,614.50
Current: ₹2,633.00
P&L: +0.71%
Hold Plan
Target hold: 10 days
Held so far: 10 days
Review / exit: 27 Aug 2026
Review complete
Assumptions
A1: Defence pipeline (P75 Bravo ~₹70,000 cr, next-gen corvettes ~₹25,000 cr) converts to firm orders during FY27.
A2: Weekly breakout holds above the ₹2,470-2,480 support zone through the hold window.
Bought 17 Aug 2026
Accepted from analysis task analysis-2026-08-17-0830
Confirmed and held 18 Aug 2026
Entered Aug 17 at ₹2,614.5, now ₹2,601.5 (-0.5%); Q1 beat (revenue +39%, PAT +44% YoY) and defence momentum intact, but price sits right at the ~₹2,628 200-DMA zone - hold with a stop discipline.
Reviewed and closed 27 Aug 2026
Post-mortem postmortem-REC-20260817-06-GRSE-2026-08-27 completed on 2026-08-27T03:20:29Z.
Post-Mortem
Exit n apartially correct
Review Return
Review price: ₹2,633.00
Full hold: +0.71%
Actual: +0.71%
Benchmarks
NIFTY 50: -0.33%
Excess: +1.04%
Sector excess: +1.69%
What If
Held full: +0.71%
Exited at WATCH: +0.00%
Thesis Analysis
Q1 beat, order book up to ₹15,324 cr, ONGC/tug/ferry awards and the ₹3,500 cr expansion validated the naval build-up story, but price stayed flat (+0.71%); the ₹2,950 target and weekly-breakout follow-through failed. Stock beat NIFTY (+1.04%) and defence index (+1.69%), yet graded a miss.
Exit Analysis
Never exited; position remained ACTIVE through review. Stop at ₹2,457 was never breached (MAE -1.43%) and the trailing stop never activated (requires +5%; MFE +3.5%), so there is no exit event to grade.
Verified Assumptions
A1 Pending
Verify-by date 2026-12-31 not yet due. Partial positive evidence: order book expanded to ₹15,324 cr (vs ₹13,596 cr at entry), ₹3,500 cr GRSE/YIL expansion foundation laid, DAC cleared ₹52,000 cr proposals - but no P75 Bravo firm award announced by review.
A2 Verified
Breakout held: lowest close in the window was ~₹2,577 (Aug 24 close ₹2,593), never near the ₹2,470-2,480 zone. However, the breakout stalled - no follow-through; stock reverted to the ₹2,590-2,630 range (Aug 26 NSE close ₹2,630.30).
Lessons
high order_book_thesis_margin_execution_gate
Fundamental validation did not deliver the 12% target: GRSE's order book grew to ₹15,324 cr and the Nifty India Defence index set record highs (9,968 on Aug 18) inside the window, yet MFE capped at +3.5% and the stock closed flat. Order-flow-driven sector-tailwind targets need a price/margin follow-through gate; GRSE entered ~21% below its ₹3,339 52-week high, so the 12% target was aggressive.
high sector_tailwind_relative_strength_gate
The 'fresh weekly breakout' premise lacked day-to-day confirmation: GRSE stalled under ₹2,705 (Aug 19) and faded into the ₹2,590-2,630 range while its sector index also pulled back from record highs. Sector-tailwind picks should require the stock to hold relative strength versus Nifty India Defence through the window, not just at entry.
moderate sector_tailwind_macro_persistence_gate
Entering a sector at extended valuation (Nifty India Defence P/E ~59 vs 5-year average ~51.8, index at record highs) produced a -0.98% index return over the 10-day window. Add a valuation-extension persistence check to sector_tailwind entries.
No corporate events attached.