This Month
4
0 upcoming, 4 historical review dates.
Calendar
Immovable lifecycle review calendar
0
0 post-mortem tasks pending in tasks/pending/
Completed
4
Review dates with post-mortems already ingested.
Selected Date
28 Aug 2026
Aarti Industries
AARTIIND • REVIEW_COMPLETE • sector tailwind
Hold 10 days • Review / exit 28 Aug 2026
+2.27% Post-mortem done
Aarti Industries
AARTIIND • REVIEW_COMPLETE • sector tailwind
Hold 10 days • Review / exit 28 Aug 2026
Aarti is compounding on specialty-chemicals margin recovery: Q1 FY27 PAT jumped 260% YoY to ₹155 cr on revenue +41% to ₹2,627 cr with EBITDA margin up from 12.7% to 16.0%, and management reaffirmed the ₹700-800 cr FY27 capex plan. Axis Securities (Aug 17) flags a decisive weekly breakout above ₹522 with a ₹585-599 target (~11-14% upside) and the stock trades above its 200-day SMA (~₹426) with RSI ~50.
Prices
Entry: ₹525.20
Current: ₹537.10
P&L: +2.27%
Hold Plan
Target hold: 10 days
Held so far: 10 days
Review / exit: 28 Aug 2026
Review complete
Assumptions
A1: Aarti clears and holds the ₹522-523 resistance (52-week high zone) with volume; Axis ₹585-599 target reachable
A2: Q2 volume recovery materialises as guided; West Asia freight/export disruption does not escalate
A3: Nifty holds the 24,200 support in a range-bound regime; no sharp risk-off extension
Bought 18 Aug 2026
Accepted from analysis task analysis-2026-08-18-0830
Confirmed and held 19 Aug 2026
At Rs 532 (+1.3% vs entry Rs 525.2) with Q1 PAT +260% YoY confirmed by exchange-sourced results; Axis breakout target Rs 585-599 is intact and no stop breach (Rs 493.7).
Reviewed and closed 28 Aug 2026
Post-mortem postmortem-REC-20260818-07-AARTIIND-2026-08-28 completed on 2026-08-28T03:17:00Z.
Post-Mortem
Exit n apartially correct
Review Return
Review price: ₹537.10
Full hold: +2.27%
Actual: +2.27%
Benchmarks
NIFTY 50: -0.27%
Excess: +2.54%
Sector excess: +3.37%
What If
Held full: +2.27%
Exited at WATCH: +0.00%
Thesis Analysis
Margin-recovery thesis directionally correct: stock cleared and held ₹522-523, outperforming NIFTY (+2.5pp) and Nifty Chemical (+3.4pp). But +2.3% versus an 11% target in 10 days is a weak hit, not the projected breakout follow-through.
Exit Analysis
No exit executed; pick remained ACTIVE through review. Stop (₹493.7) never threatened (MAE -1.71%); chandelier trailing activation at +5% (₹551.46) not reached (peak close ₹543.15).
Verified Assumptions
A1 Verified
Cleared and held the ₹522-523 breakout zone through review (entry ₹525.2, peak close ₹543.15, review ₹537.1); Axis ₹585-599 target not reached within the 10-day window but structure intact.
A2 Pending
No West Asia freight/export disruption escalation reported during the window (risk leg held); Q2 volume recovery is a Sep-quarter item not yet measurable.
A3 Failed
Nifty closed below 24,200 at both ends of the window (24,154.90 on Aug 18, 24,090.85 on Aug 27); support failed though the decline was a mild range-bound drift (-0.27%), not a sharp risk-off extension.
Lessons
high sector_tailwind_short_window_target_gate
An 11% target on a 10-day sector_tailwind window is aggressive even when the thesis works: Aarti beat NIFTY by +2.5pp and Nifty Chemical by +3.4pp yet still graded only a weak hit (+2.3%). Calibrate short-window exploratory targets to benchmark-relative upside, not broker technical objectives.
moderate sector_tailwind_macro_persistence_gate
A3 failed (Nifty below 24,200) yet the stock delivered positive alpha: stock-specific margin-recovery momentum can decouple from index weakness in a range-bound tape. Macro persistence checks should inform exits only when the stock thesis or price structure itself breaks, not on benchmark drift alone.
No corporate events attached.