This Month
0
0 upcoming, 0 historical review dates.
Calendar
Immovable lifecycle review calendar
0
0 post-mortem tasks pending in tasks/pending/
Completed
0
Review dates with post-mortems already ingested.
Selected Date
22 Sept 2026
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
SUNPHARMA • REVIEW_COMPLETE • value fundamental
Hold 48 days • Review / exit 22 Sept 2026
-3.66% Post-mortem done
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
SUNPHARMA • REVIEW_COMPLETE • value fundamental
Hold 48 days • Review / exit 22 Sept 2026
Sun Pharma has fresh Q1 FY27 evidence with net profit up about 27% YoY and sales up about 10%, while the stock is above its 50-DMA and 200-DMA after a controlled pullback from a recent 52-week high. The pick adds liquid pharma exposure, but the stop must respect the post-results support zone because Q1 revenue missed some estimates.
Prices
Entry: ₹1,939.80
Current: ₹1,868.90
P&L: -3.66%
Hold Plan
Target hold: 48 days
Held so far: 48 days
Review / exit: 22 Sept 2026
Review complete
Assumptions
A1: The stock should hold above Rs 1,880 after the post-results pullback.
A2: The MOFSL innovation-pipeline upside case remains active through the review window.
Bought 5 Aug 2026
Accepted from analysis task analysis-2026-06-15-0830
Confirmed and held 13 Aug 2026
At Rs 1,941 (flat vs entry Rs 1,939.8); Q1 PAT +27% with Organon acquisition on track and Motilal Oswal Buy (Rs 2,310) support the Rs 2,140 target; stock sits ~8% above its 200-DMA (Rs 1,798).
Flagged for a closer look 18 Aug 2026
₹1,881 vs entry ₹1,939.8 (-3.0%); Aug 17 fall (~-2.5%) made it a worst-in-Nifty name - now below the ~₹1,902 50-DMA though above the ₹1,798 200-DMA and the ₹1,823 stop; monitor the post-results support zone ~₹1,850.
Back to normal 21 Aug 2026
At ₹1,898.5 vs entry ₹1,939.8 (-2.1%), the stock was on WATCH after Q1 revenue missed; it has since recovered from ~₹1,795 to ~₹1,900 (top NSE gainer on Aug 19, +1.3%) and the Organon deal remains on track, so upgrade back to HOLD with the ₹2,140 target intact.
Flagged for a closer look 10 Sept 2026
At Rs 1,865 the position is 3.9% below its Rs 1,939.80 entry and only about 2% above its Rs 1,823 stop, and the stock has closed below its 50-day average of Rs 1,910.70 every day in September, which breaks a condition of the original thesis. It still stands above its 200-day average of Rs 1,822.50, and Bernstein (Outperform, Rs 2,235) and HSBC (Buy, Rs 2,120) see the US pricing deal as manageable, so this is a tighten-and-watch rather than an exit ahead of the September 22 review date.
Back to normal 18 Sept 2026
At Rs 1,860.90 Sun Pharma is 4.1% below the Rs 1,939.80 entry but still above its Rs 1,823.90 200-day average, and it is recovering along with a sector that hit a record high on 17 September. The US decision to make its medicine tariff exemption permanent for over two years removes the single largest overhang on the stock, and Bernstein (Rs 2,235) and HSBC (Rs 2,120) both stand well above the current price, with the pick's own review date falling on 22 September.
Flagged for a closer look 21 Sept 2026
At Rs 1,852 it is 4.5% below the Rs 1,939.8 entry and only 1.5% above its Rs 1,823.4 stop, the review date is 2026-09-22, and the stock has drifted from Rs 1,929 on 1 September while the pharma sector made record highs, so it is now lagging its own sector.
Back to normal 22 Sept 2026
Sun Pharma is at Rs 1,868.90, 3.7% below our Rs 1,939.80 entry but still above the Rs 1,823.40 stop; it rose 2.9% on Monday as money rotated into defensive pharma and Geojit repeated Buy with a Rs 2,070 target, so hold and keep the stop.
Reviewed and closed 22 Sept 2026
Post-mortem postmortem-REC-20260805-04-SUNPHARMA-2026-09-22 completed on 2026-09-22T03:45:00Z.
Post-Mortem
Exit n awrong
Review Return
Review price: ₹1,868.90
Full hold: -3.66%
Actual: -3.66%
Benchmarks
NIFTY 50: -4.92%
Excess: +1.26%
Sector excess: -5.38%
What If
Held full: -3.66%
Exited at WATCH: -3.03%
Thesis Analysis
Fresh-earnings and pharma-participation premise failed: Q1 US formulations fell 9.7% and margin dropped 220bps, so the stock fell 3.7% while Nifty Pharma hit record highs (+1.7%) - a 5.4pp sector lag. The 50-DMA broke and the Rs 2,140 target was never approached; only the NIFTY beat (+1.3pp) held.
Exit Analysis
No exit executed; pick remained in WATCH at review. The Rs 1,823.40 stop was never breached but came within ~Rs 5 (MAE -5.76%, low ~Rs 1,828) as the 50-DMA broke; MFE was +2.32% (peak close Rs 1,984.80 on 31 Aug) before the 1 Sep US pricing-deal reversal.
Verified Assumptions
A1 Failed
Held at the 2026-08-12 checkpoint (NSE close Rs 1,944) but the Rs 1,880 floor broke on 17-18 Aug (Rs 1,881) and again in September, when the stock traded roughly Rs 1,837-1,868 and closed the window at Rs 1,868.90, only ~0.6% above the Rs 1,823.40 stop.
A2 Verified
Broker upside cases stayed active through review: Motilal Oswal Rs 2,310, Bernstein Rs 2,235, HSBC Rs 2,120, Geojit Buy Rs 2,070 (21 Sep); the $11.75bn Organon deal is on track (shareholder approval 23 Jul, closure expected Q4 FY27) and the 31 Aug MFN deal won a >2-year Section 232 tariff reprieve, though it concedes Medicaid and future-launch pricing. The case was never invalidated, yet never translated into price.
Lessons
high value_fundamental_target_reach_gate
Third value_fundamental pick (after TATACONSUM and SBIN) where a 10-15% broker-style target was unreachable inside the hold window: MFE here was only +2.32% (peak close Rs 1,984.80 on 31 Aug) before the 1 Sep US pricing-deal reversal, and the Rs 2,140 target was never approached over 48 days. Cap value_fundamental target_move_pct to hold-window-achievable, benchmark-relative moves rather than broker objectives.
moderate value_fundamental_sector_relative_strength_gate
A record-high sector did not lift a laggard: Sun Pharma underperformed Nifty Pharma (record highs, +1.7%) by 5.4pp even as it beat NIFTY by 1.3pp. The headline PAT +27% masked US formulations -9.7% YoY and a 220bps EBITDA-margin contraction, so stock-specific earnings quality, not the sector, set the outcome. Require positive sector-relative strength at entry for post-results value picks.
moderate technical_signal_consensus_gate
The pick flipped WATCH->ACTIVE->WATCH three times (18 Aug Rs 1,881; 10 Sep Rs 1,867; 21 Sep Rs 1,852) with no consensus test, and the +2.32% 31 Aug peak round-tripped to -3.66% with no breakeven or trailing trigger; only exiting at the first WATCH flag (-3.03%) beat holding. Require multi-source technical consensus before status flips and a profit-protection trigger once a value_fundamental pick exceeds +2%.
No corporate events attached.